# Hurricane Dorian



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

Coming to you live from the same folks that are predicting absolutely that the weather is going to warm 2 degrees, melt the polar ice caps, and flood Obama's new $15 million mansion on the Atlantic coast sometime in the next 30 years... 

-- First it was going to be a mild tropical depression coming across Cuba and hitting Miami. 
-- Then it was going to miss Cuba, and hit further up the coast, but was maybe going to be a Tropical Storm, but more than likely not.
-- Then it was going to trek a little further up the coast and come ashore as a category 1 Hurricane, maybe mid state, but more than likely further south. 
-- Then it was maybe going to hit as far north as the Carolinas, but probably impact was somewhere central to north Florida and was coming ashore a category 2 hurricane. 
-- Then it was going to hit central Florida as a category 3, and turn north up the middle of Florida.

All of which was saying late Sunday, early Monday!

-- NOW... It's supposed to hit south to central Florida again, go straight across into the Gulf, they haven't said where the hell it's going from there, (_hold on Barry it could be coming to see you_). Supposed to be category 3 when it hits, they put a category 1 on top of Lou's house on this morning's news. And, it's supposed to slow down out there in the ocean, and not be here until Tuesday some time. 

Which that is sorta scary, because when these storms slow or stall they do things the models don't typically understand, anticipate, or predict, like turn unexpectedly, or build into ungodly devastating storms like Michael did last fall. 

But, in the meantime, the bottled water companies are getting rich, as are the propane companies, plywood companies, gas companies, etc. etc. Not a case of bottled water to be found in most of Florida about now. Only place may have any is over in the panhandle. Wally World was about out last night here, when the wife stopped. News this morning was saying most of the big outlets Walmart, Sams, Costco, all the grocery stores were sold out yesterday afternoon in Jacksonville. Lines were already forming at gas pumps 2 days ago, supposedly. And, the entire hangy down part of Florida is on alert. 

Oh yes... They made sure to include the sympathy clip for the folks who built million dollar homes on the beach that have been damaged by every hurricane that's hit since they were built, while I have to pay flood insurance to help rebuild them every time. 

Pardon my flood insurance rant, dumbasses said HALF of my shop is in the flood plain, so we have to insure all of the buildings. 

Then they will not insure the contents of the shop because it's not inhabited.  

Among the reasons this all makes me grumpy... 

1.) Mine is not the only one they've done this too. I know a dozen or more people they have screwed in this manner, and it is extortion. You can fight it, spend thousands of dollar to have a topographical survey done, get exempted, and they recalculate everything and put you right back in the flood plain the next year, like my father did. 

2.) If the shop can't be insured, why does it dictate the house must be insured? That's utterly ridiculous!

3.) My yard is pretty level around the building, the shop floor is perfectly level. Common sense would have to ask... How can half of the building can be prone to flood, and the other half not with a perfectly level floor in it? HELLO!! 

4.) Have a spot in the backyard that everything, including the fish ponds drain out of, it's two or three feet lower than the corner of the west pond, and the ponds are all a couple feet lower than the shop. And, the yo-yos doing the flood plain maps, show that spot in the yard as NOT being in the flood plain. Which leads me to believe they are reading the little lines on their topo maps backwards, and my shop is several feet above the flood plain. 

But, in the meantime I have to help rebuild someone's home on the beach, every time a storm hits. 

Uhmmm... There is a reason there are sand dunes there. Even nature is smart enough not to build along the beach.

Reactions: Sincere 5


----------



## Nature Man (Aug 29, 2019)

Hang in there, Rocky! This ain't your first rodeo! Chuck


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

Yeah, I need to quit watching the forecast for a day or two, the stupidity of it all is driving me crazier than I already am! 

We are literally back to the same impact zone we were at 2 days ago, Merritt Island south to West Palm Beach. GFS model going more north, Euro model going more south. Just supposed to be slowing down and building. The only change is showing it going across the state into the Gulf rather than turning up the state. At this point, I'm gonna guess we may be lucky to get any rain out of it up here where I'm at. 

But, we do have several members down there in the path folks.

Reactions: Sincere 2


----------



## Wildthings (Aug 29, 2019)

I'm hoping it goes up the coast and away from the hangy down part of Florida. I don't want to see it get into the Gulf!! The only forecast I pay a lot of attention to is Levi at www.tropicaltidbits.com. But I look at all the others too


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

You may be in luck Barry! 

Noon update... Forecasting category 4 before it makes landfall now. (_Enter the slowing down, and building in intensity and size or turning, that I mentioned earlier._) Models are still splitting, narrowing in paths now, and putting it making landfall south central to south Florida, Titusville to West Palm Beach. And, now back to crossing the state to make a left at Lou's, then turning up the state and running over me. 

But, they're certain the planet's temperature is gonna rise 2 degrees in 30 years!

Reactions: Funny 2


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

Oh yes... Have to have an ID to fill sand bags in several counties, but it's politically incorrect to need one to vote!

Reactions: Agree 6


----------



## William Tanner (Aug 29, 2019)

Rocky. Wife and I have been talking about this storm and and truly feeling for you and others that may be targeted. Even if you don’t end up getting hit it all must be stressful as hell. Not a good deal. And dealing with government stuff. Ug. We live in a desert up here in the NW and don’t have to deal with hurricanes. Makes me wonder why I’ve stored army sand bags in my shed for probably 20 years.

Reactions: Funny 1


----------



## lathemaster (Aug 29, 2019)

News anchor reported this morning that you need to have supplies for 7 days, The line at the liquor store was really long.

Reactions: Funny 11


----------



## barry richardson (Aug 29, 2019)



Reactions: Funny 4


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

Local news anchor is warning us we're still 4 days out, and it all could change, then showed the latest models. And, yep... It's changed again! 

GFS model and National Hurricane Center are showing it coming ashore about Fort Pierce, FL, trekking across the state to @Lou Currier 's house, then turning north and heading back out to sea around St. Augustine or Jacksonville area. (_He suggested the Hurricane Center is following the GFS model_). LOTS of rain, but several hundred miles over land, and wound down substantially before reaching us in the north end of the state. That one would make it Tropical Storm by the time it gets up here to me, 40 - 50 mph winds, close to a foot of rain here in-land where I'm at. Down there at ground zero, 130+ mph winds, and close to 2 feet of rain possible, in a 24 hour period. And, they're predicting over a foot in 24 hours, from Orlando all the way up to Jacksonville. Which as Lou has been pointing out, middle of the state is already extremely wet. 

Euro model is shifting even further south now, which the local weather yo-yo cites as the more experienced and more accurate model, and that one pushes it almost due south of the southern tip of Florida before it pulls a hard right and turns north, then runs it all the way up the coast, meaning not a lot to no reduction in intensity if it stays off shore, and hammering the entire east coast from Miami clear up to South Carolina and possibly beyond. Wherein you guys out there in Colorado on the mountain tops will very likely be signing up for Flood Insurance next week. But, we'll be in for about the same weather here at my house. 

All of this is dependent upon a large high pressure system over the Bermuda Islands pushing this way and forcing the Hurricane south, how far it pushes, and when it recedes, allowing the storm to track north. 


These guys are going to see the worst of it... 

@wood128 
@Blueglass 
@Spinartist 
@Tim Carter 

Still subject to be ugly when it gets over in these guys neck of the woods... 

@Lou Currier 
@lathemaster 
@Acadian 
@Drgam 

May slow down to something a little less than Hurricane force before it gets to these guys... 

@Ray D 
@TurkeyHunter 

This guy is gonna be swimming out to his shop as much rain as they've had down there around Gainesville, with a foot or more on the way... 

@milkbaby 


So far, I'm pretty safe. Hopefully everyone west of me doesn't have to deal with this, the panhandle still hasn't begun to rebuild from last year's storm in many places. They are going to see some rain, but hopefully not a lot of rain.

Reactions: Funny 1 | Sincere 3


----------



## Tony (Aug 29, 2019)

I hope every one of y'all comes out of this unscathed; bodily, houses and shops. Keep us updated Rock!

Reactions: Agree 3


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

William Tanner said:


> Rocky. Wife and I have been talking about this storm and and truly feeling for you and others that may be targeted. Even if you don’t end up getting hit it all must be stressful as hell. Not a good deal. And dealing with government stuff. Ug. We live in a desert up here in the NW and don’t have to deal with hurricanes. Makes me wonder why I’ve stored army sand bags in my shed for probably 20 years.



The incessant changes they project are more stressful than anything. You can't do anything but prepare for it, pick up all the loose bee keeping equipment around the shop so it doesn't blow around, wrap it or band it or put it inside something. Stack pallets on top of everything, stack it all tightly together. Pick up everything around the yard, have my Harbor Freight portable garage/greenhouse still up, it's got to come down. Wife just put a trampoline up for the grandniece 3 weeks ago, it'll have to come down. Need to get generator running, dig out extension cords, got at least 2 days of work getting everything ready over the next 4 days, and it very likely won't amount to much more than a 2 day rain here.

But, if by chance it turns and comes ashore a hundred miles further north, it could get really ugly here. 

List them sand bags on E-Bay quick, you could probably get a decent price for them!

Reactions: Like 2 | Sincere 2


----------



## Mike1950 (Aug 29, 2019)

12 inches of rain
We get 15 inches precip a yr, mostly white stuff.
I detect a bit of disbelieve in the whole weather predicting thing. Yall do not believe Al had it right???? 

Kidding aside all of ya be careful.

Reactions: Sincere 2


----------



## Blueglass (Aug 29, 2019)

I am keeping an eye on it. Have not decided what to do yet. Have been clearing my wife's shop out for the move to the Keys and have to have it emptied tomorrow. Depending on how it is going will probably take off early Saturday morning. Damn I'm tired.

Reactions: Sincere 5


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

Average rainfall here is around 52 inches... Varies throughout the state 45 - 72 inches. 

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Florida/yearly-florida-rainfall.php

Reactions: Informative 2


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

May not be out of the woods down there Les. Be safe!!

Reactions: Agree 1


----------



## Tom Smart (Aug 29, 2019)

@rocky1 I was down in Venice with my dad 2 years ago when Irma blew through. Think I’ll stay up here in VA for this one. At 93 dad is still there in his house. I’m glad my brother and sister are close by to help.

Reactions: Like 2 | Sincere 2


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

Yeah, I remember that Tom. So far they're looking good over there, but that could change. Depends on what that Bermuda high does. 

He sounds like my old man. Huge fire came through here 2007 as best I recall; my old man refused to leave. Told the fireman, unless he was big enough to carry him off kicking and screaming, he was staying right there. And, he did. I had to come back out and stay with him to ease everyone else's minds, because they were all scared he was going to burn up.


----------



## Tom Smart (Aug 29, 2019)

Yeah, dad won’t leave his house, refuses to move. He still does everything around the place but cut the grass, but hey, who FL cuts their own grass? He is housebound though without a car now. 

I recall all the hysteria about the Cat 5 Irma tearing the entire state apart. And if you were in Key West those predictions came true. By the time it got midway up state to us it was a Cat 3 and, luckily, we were on the weak side of it. Still not a fun time. I wish everyone there luck.

Reactions: Like 1


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 29, 2019)

Actually my 81 year old father still mows his own yard, all the time. Drives me crazy sharpening lawn mower blades, and fixing the lawn mower, (_bahia grass does not cut clean when it is hot and dry, I don't care what you do, and if there is one stalk sticking up where he cut, the blade needs sharpening again_), and (_spindle bearing went out and locked up, replaced all three of those, don't think he's burned 2 - 3 tanks full of gas since, and somehow blew the deck belt off of it the other day_), but he mows it.

Reactions: Like 3


----------



## Mike1950 (Aug 29, 2019)

rocky1 said:


> Actually my 81 year old father still mows his own yard, all the time. Drives me crazy sharpening lawn mower blades, and fixing the lawn mower, (_bahia grass does not cut clean when it is hot and dry, I don't care what you do, and if there is one stalk sticking up where he cut, the blade needs sharpening again_), and (_spindle bearing went out and locked up, replaced all three of those, don't think he's burned 2 - 3 tanks full of gas since, and somehow blew the deck belt off of it the other day_), but he mows it.


Mom is 89 and still mows hers.

Reactions: Like 2


----------



## Tom Smart (Aug 29, 2019)

Whoa, glad they can both still do that. Hope I can at that age. Seems every other vehicle in FL is towing a trailer with mowers and weed eaters. Dad has had the same guy cutting his grass for over 25 years. I don’t think he has raised his price since starting. 

My brother says it’s been raining there for almost 3 weeks so the ground is already saturated.

Reactions: Like 1


----------



## Wildthings (Aug 29, 2019)

My guy is saying, on the below map, Sunday it's going to slow to a crawl and then depending on the High you mentioned and a mid state low trough it will impact FL and then turn north. The news just reported 140 mph at landfall. Yikes sure wish it would turn north sooner and head out to sea. Still lots of uncertainties!

Reactions: Agree 2 | Sincere 1


----------



## FLQuacker (Aug 29, 2019)

Odd thing about these storms. I've seen damage and paths from a lot of major hurricanes. Most recent Michael. It made landfall 130 miles SW of our place in N FL. It's path crossed NW of us less than 60 miles when it was 80 miles inland, still a Cat 2/3 storm. Normal afternoon thunder storms brought more winds.,

I turkey hunted in 2 GA management areas just south of Albany GA this year. That is almost 150 miles inland, but in the eyewall track path. You could not walk 50 ft without climbing over or walking around 20" - 30" pine trees. Snapped and blown over. The bottoms, forget it.

If you are in the eyewall path, it's not gonna be a peaceful time, for a ways inland.

My only real concern is being in the eyewall path. Which does expand as it weakens.

60 years of it, and you still get a bit nervous :}

Reactions: Like 1 | Agree 1 | Sincere 3


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 30, 2019)

This morning the gorgeous weather gal is saying that the GFS and Euro have consensus on landfall at this point, and they are relatively confident that it is going to hit in the Ft Pierce / West Palm Beach area, but upon landfall the models split again. GFS taking it over to visit Lou, possibly on out into the gulf before turning north, the Euro taking a right as soon as it hits shore, with the eye running 30 - 50 miles in-land all the way up into the Carolinas. She did say however, that traveling over land, it is extremely unpredictable, and difficult to forecast.

Using the same rainfall maps the weather yo-yo did last night, rainfall totals were greatly reduced, and using the updated Euro model it moved most of the rain off the coast. What he called 12+ inches, she was saying was 9 - 10, and with the newly found knowledge of the map legend, and updated path, she's got us at a miserable 1.75", while we could honestly use 6 - 8". That little rain, also indicates, very little likelihood of significant winds, meaning I might not have to live on my generator and try to sleep in a 90 degree house for a week.

Reactions: Sincere 1


----------



## Mike1950 (Aug 30, 2019)

FLQuacker said:


> Odd thing about these storms. I've seen damage and paths from a lot of major hurricanes. Most recent Michael. It made landfall 130 miles SW of our place in N FL. It's path crossed NW of us less than 60 miles when it was 80 miles inland, still a Cat 2/3 storm. Normal afternoon thunder storms brought more winds.,
> 
> I turkey hunted in 2 GA management areas just south of Albany GA this year. That is almost 150 miles inland, but in the eyewall track path. You could not walk 50 ft without climbing over or walking around 20" - 30" pine trees. Snapped and blown over. The bottoms, forget it.
> 
> ...



I am always amazed at pictures after these storms. Tremendous power. We went to the east Mt. st. helens view point shortly after it opened. The picture that will stick in my mind was 3-4' diameter fir trees for as far as you could see all laid out in one direction like matchstix. Travel with the grain would have been difficult. against-impossible.

Reactions: Sincere 1


----------



## FLQuacker (Aug 30, 2019)

@Mike1950 Wow Mike...you're right, scenes like that are a spiritual moment!

This is definitely anybodys guess right now after landfall.

Amazing with the technology and science they still don't really know until they know :)

Been dropping sondes all around FL, Gulf and Atlantic and over trying to get a handle on the steering current potentials. Clip I saw this morning was steering currents abate to nothing and once landfall it could take 24 hrs for it to creep up the State 200 miles!

MacDill evacuated all planes, that's not good. There still exists a potential for it to cross the State almost emerging in the Gulf before it turns back NE.

Reminds me of Charlie approaching from the South up the west coast in the Gulf. They knew it would turn right, just not sure when....and they didn't know until it did. That was a 50 mile luckout for us. I don't think the sun ever stopped shinning here, but again, in the eyewall perimeter, good Lord!

Looked like a tornado path way up the Peace River Valley.

Reactions: Like 1 | Sincere 1


----------



## Mike1950 (Aug 30, 2019)

FLQuacker said:


> @Mike1950 Wow Mike...you're right, scenes like that are a spiritual moment!
> 
> This is definitely anybodys guess right now after landfall.
> 
> ...



yep-mother nature ( hold it can you say that now-not very gender neutral?? ) demonstrates she is boss and we are nothing whenever her (?) heart desires. Amazing....

Reactions: Funny 2


----------



## Wildthings (Aug 30, 2019)

This is a crazy one and very stressful for y'all. My guy on tropicaltidbits said tonight pretty much what y'all have mentioned but said, and I'm going with this, it was going to stall Sunday and approach Fl on Monday at a crawl. This gives time for a new trough to develop out of Canada and effect it. She is going to turn up the coast line and follow it and make landfall at Jacksonsville on Wed. 3 1/2 days of pounding Florida YIKES I linked the video at about 6:50 where he talks why it's going to do that UTUBE But he does state that the uncertainties are there and very little wiggle in any of the factors will change the timing of the northerly turn drastically


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 30, 2019)

Euro model and GFX are now saying it's coming right up to the coast, take a hard right, run up there to Les and Joe's neighborhood, skim the shore at Cape Canaveral/Merritt Island and slip back out to sea skirting the coast up to central Georgia, possibly South Carolina. Given current wind speeds, rate it's moving, time to shoreline, local weather yo-yo seems to believe it may attain Category 5 before making landfall as well. 

Here where I'm at, not sure how that pans out... Went from a category 1 at Jackonville, 50 miles away, to a category 3, possibly 4, 30 - 50 miles off the coast. Badly needed rains shifted further east again as well


----------



## Sprung (Aug 31, 2019)

Wherever it decides to go, whatever it decides to turn into - I hope y'all stay safe down there.

Reactions: Agree 4


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 31, 2019)

Shifting further out to sea according to this morning's report... Appears the guys on the east coast are still at risk, but they've got me down to barely a half inch of rain now.


----------



## FLQuacker (Aug 31, 2019)

Looks like a good fishn day here on the west coast now...I'd love to see the wave/swells on the east coast though!

11a puts it farther off Coast.


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 31, 2019)

Surfers are flocking to the beach in droves. Interviewed several in the news this morning.


----------



## William Tanner (Aug 31, 2019)

Rocky. Glad the beach is staying in the same place...so far anyway.


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 31, 2019)

It won't when it gets here... 150 mph winds all the way up there east coast you'll have to go to the gulf to see a beach.


----------



## larry C (Aug 31, 2019)

Hang in there Rocky, if you need a place to go, come on over to our place, we're about 15 miles west of Pensacola, and we've got room.......I think we've dodged a bullet
at least for this time.....you've got my number if you need me.
Larry

Reactions: +Karma 2 | Sincere 1


----------



## Blueglass (Aug 31, 2019)

Mike1950 said:


> I am always amazed at pictures after these storms. Tremendous power. We went to the east Mt. st. helens view point shortly after it opened. The picture that will stick in my mind was 3-4' diameter fir trees for as far as you could see all laid out in one direction like matchstix. Travel with the grain would have been difficult. against-impossible.



The same scene amazed me just south of Florida City after Hurricane Andrew, all the pines were snapped off at the same level like matchsticks.


----------



## ripjack13 (Aug 31, 2019)

rocky1 said:


> the gorgeous weather gal



What channel?


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 31, 2019)

ripjack13 said:


> What channel?



WJXT Channel 4 out of Jacksonville... 

This morning... 






Last year's hurricane...

Reactions: EyeCandy! 1


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 31, 2019)

larry C said:


> Hang in there Rocky, if you need a place to go, come on over to our place, we're about 15 miles west of Pensacola, and we've got room.......I think we've dodged a bullet
> at least for this time.....you've got my number if you need me.
> Larry



If this thing keeps tracking west, we'll be lucky to get the grass watered out of it. This evening's forecast tracks it 80 miles out to sea at Jacksonville. Not that I am complaining even a little. But, lots of B_S_ and aggravation getting everything ready, to not even get any rain. Last projection out of the local weather was .64" so... 

I'm far enough inland they typically get slowed down pretty good in here, and someone has to stay here and take care of the folks. Power company is just finishing trimming all the trees, I wanted to see if we could make it through a storm without an outage.

Reactions: Like 3 | Agree 1


----------



## rocky1 (Aug 31, 2019)

More Rebecca videos if you didn't get enough...

Reactions: Like 1


----------



## ripjack13 (Aug 31, 2019)

This is my girl.

Reactions: Like 2


----------



## Wildthings (Aug 31, 2019)

This is mine and I don't understand what she is saying! But who cares!!

Reactions: Like 2 | Agree 2 | Funny 1


----------



## FLQuacker (Sep 1, 2019)

Not a good time to be in the Bahama's

Whoever is left is praying for that Northward turn!





https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

11a....180 MPH!!!

NW Bahama's are sand dunes

Reactions: Agree 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 1, 2019)

Well, this afternoon they're talking Category 5, (_157+ mph sustained winds_). As Wayne mentioned Hurricane Hunters found wind speeds in excess of 180 mph sustained, with gusts up to 220 mph. Estimated max speed at ground level was 207 mph. Gotta agree on the sand dune situation there in the Bahamas. If it crawls over the island for 24 hours, making it's turn, like they are forecasting, there won't be much left. Between 10+ ft. of tidal surge, 2 ft. of rain, and 200 mph winds, for 24 hours, I can't imagine anything being left there. Forward speed has slowed to 5 mph.


Cape Canaveral, Merritt Island is under mandatory evacuation orders, those were supposed to go into effect this morning, since the hurricane slowed, they backed the "mandatory" off until tomorrow morning, still recommending everyone run. Tidal surge is the major concern there, possible they may experience hurricane force winds, but at this point it's tightly wrapped and the hurricane force wind field only extends 45 miles out from the eye wall. If it turns and runs north as far out as is being projected, the coastline of Florida will for the most part experience Tropical Storm force winds, although tidal surge and wave action is gonna be a killer.

We're 100 miles in-land, it's 80 miles out to sea, we might get a breeze out of it here.

Was supposed to be here tonight, now talking Wednesday, possibly Thursday before it arrives.

Reactions: Like 3


----------



## CWS (Sep 1, 2019)

I hope you miss the storm along with all of our friends in Florida and along the East coast. Thoughts and prayer for everyone.

Reactions: Agree 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 1, 2019)

Lee is probably going to see a little impact, maybe more than a little dependent upon where exactly it makes it's turn. Joe and Les up there in Merritt Island/Cape Canaveral will be seriously impacted in current projections. Have a few more members along the east coast that aren't real active may be impacted. Now they're talking 100 miles out to sea up here on the north end, so over 200 from me. 

Henry might be in trouble up there in North Carolina now though. --- @SENC

Reactions: Sincere 2


----------



## Blueglass (Sep 1, 2019)

I'm still watching. THere is a good chance we will run down to my mom's tomorrow. Even if we just lose power it stink to be without power for a week with 2 kids. I pray for everyone else. This one is a beast.

Reactions: Sincere 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 1, 2019)

Yeah... It doesn't look good there Les. If the model is off just a degree or two, you guys are subject to get hit hard there on the Island. Have an aunt lives there, I'm sure she's going to the cousin's place in Orlando. But having just been there, I have to wonder if the lake in his backyard might not be up in the yard given water levels we saw there a couple weeks ago, with projected rainfall in the area. Definitely an ugly one, AccuWeather has been saying all afternoon it may go down in the books as the highest sustained winds in an Atlantic Hurricane in recorded history. Had 17 Category 5 storms listed and it's only a few mph slower than the ugliest so far, Hurricane Allen, back in 1980.

Stay safe, and keep in touch, we'll all be thinking about you guys down there.

Reactions: Informative 1


----------



## Tom Smart (Sep 1, 2019)

rocky1 said:


> Lee is probably going to see a little impact, maybe more than a little dependent upon where exactly it makes it's turn. Joe and Les up there in Merritt Island/Cape Canaveral will be seriously impacted in current projections. Have a few more members along the east coast that aren't real active may be impacted. Now they're talking 100 miles out to sea up here on the north end, so over 200 from me.
> 
> Henry might be in trouble up there in North Carolina now though. --- @SENC


Henry got “Florenced” last September. Sure hope it stays out to sea.

Reactions: Agree 2


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 1, 2019)

The only consolation on Henry's end is, they have it down to category 1 by the time it makes landfall up there, IF it makes it that far before hitting land, or IF it makes landfall at all. They suspect it could remain at sea, briefly skirting the coast between Charleston and Cape Hatteras somewhere. 

One thing that seems to be consistent in all reports is, that although it is an extremely intense storm, it is a relatively small storm, as hurricanes go. Hurricane winds only extend 40 miles outside the eye wall, and the eye is only 20 miles or so across. 

Currently saying 30 mph winds here at worst, be here early morning hours Wednesday. Could see some heavier rains in areas here locally, that are already wet.


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 1, 2019)

Navy is taking no chances, entire squadron of helicopters at Mayport Naval Station was evacuated today. They all flew over headed west this afternoon. According to local news they went Maxwell AFB in Montgomery, Alabama. Ten of them went to Virginia. Said they cost $43 million apiece, so it was nice of them to get them out of harms way!! 

All ships at Mayport, left port last week Thursday.

Reactions: Like 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 1, 2019)

Resourceful resident... No plywood available, so... Don't have to worry about the fence blowing away either!

Reactions: Like 4 | Funny 1 | Creative 5


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 1, 2019)

@Blueglass - Les you might want to check the - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ - update tonight. It's all showing shift a little further west, bringing it closer to the coast and you. One model puts it running right over the top of you and he explains that in depth. You might want to go visit mom!!

This update also increases likelihood that @SENC could see landfall up there in North Carolina.

Oh yes... Loving that site Barry! Thank you, he makes a lot of sense out of what's being forecast.

Reactions: Like 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 2, 2019)

This morning's report shows it beginning it's turn although slowly. Down to 1 mph forward advance earlier this morning. Some weakening, category 4 now, which could be not good, according to last night's tropical tidbits report, but it did start to turn earlier so it may be not altogether bad, however this also spreads the wind field. Just have to wait and see. The HWRF model that put it coming ashore, has pushed further east at this point, and now shows it just barely skimming the coast rather than coming ashore, and the GFS and Euro models show a greater turn away from the coast once past Merritt Island, putting North Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas in a little better position. 


Storm surge and tidal flooding, coupled with prolonged tropical force winds will still do billions of dollars in damage along the coast, but nothing like it would if it came ashore.

Reactions: Agree 2 | Sincere 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 2, 2019)

Have to wonder what folks in the Bahamas did to make God grumpy with them! This storm is still parked on top of the island, after more than 24 hours, grinding it into the sea. They anticipate it to start moving again, sometime between now and sunrise, but they anticipated it to start moving 8 hours or more ago. 


Same forecast here... but the longer it spends parked and turning the Bahamas back into sand dunes, the better off we are here. High out of the Ohio Valley pushes further south and east, and steers Dorian further off the coast. Projections here now are midday Wednesday we should start to feel the effects, 10 - 20 mph winds, gusts to 30, and maybe an inch of rain.

Reactions: Informative 1 | Sincere 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 2, 2019)

Found this one interesting... Forgotten Florida Facebook Page



> *Forgotten Florida
> *
> 
> *The Great Labor Day Hurricane*
> ...

Reactions: Like 1 | Great Post 1 | Useful 1


----------



## FLQuacker (Sep 2, 2019)

I was thinking the same thing!


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 2, 2019)

It turned about daybreak, and had started to move off the island this morning early, then it wobbled a little, backed up, and simply parked. Can't even begin to imagine spending that amount of time on an island that was slowly sinking, with 200 mph winds. They were talking storm surge of 15 - 23 feet in places.


----------



## FLQuacker (Sep 2, 2019)

Can't imagine. I've been thru a couple, nothing over Cat 2. But to have a 4 and 5 sit on ya for what's going to be 24 hrs is mind blowing. Literally!

Reactions: Agree 2


----------



## FLQuacker (Sep 2, 2019)

Talk about a salt/sandblasting. I don't think they'll be any painted surfaces left where the eyewalls been spinning! And for those in the eye all this time who thinks its over!!

Reactions: Like 1 | Agree 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 2, 2019)

They were saying the eye was only 20 - 30 miles across, although it did restructure itself, and that spread a little today, I'm pretty sure anyone in the eye has been sitting there wondering when it was going to move and slam them again. They have to be able to see it in every direction.

Haven't seen any pictures looked like there was any sand blowing around; everything is under water. Few pictures from Abaco Island; it was hit hard!! Saw a few pictures there, were reminiscent of the Gulf coast after Michael last year.

Reactions: Like 1 | Sincere 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 3, 2019)

Dorian has finally begun to move slowly out of the Bahamas, at 1 mph, meaning they will be in the wind field on the back side of the storm another 2 - 3 hours yet. IF it doesn't stall again! This beast has been parked on top of the island for 48 hours. Wind speeds have been greatly reduced, it arrived Category 4, just shy of category 5, built to attain cat 5, and remained there until late last night, and then began to weaken slowly, leaving as a category 3. 

What all this means for Florida is, further out to sea, much lower winds pounding the coast. impact and damage greatly reduced.

Reactions: Sincere 3


----------



## Gdurfey (Sep 4, 2019)

I can't even imagine what the northern Bahamas felt like from what I just read: 40 hours, 23 foot storm surge; and I have already forgotten how much rain. Gee, isn't 23 feet higher than most of those islands?? Wow, where do you even begin to put things back together.........

Although weaker, it sounds like SC or the Outer Banks now has the bull's-eye on them.......

Reactions: Sincere 4


----------



## Eric Rorabaugh (Sep 4, 2019)

Saw a video of about 6" of water in a house and waves splashing up on the windows. When the camera panned around, this was on the second floor. The water was up the steps from the first floor. So sad for those people.

Reactions: Like 1 | Sincere 3


----------



## Sprung (Sep 4, 2019)

I came across a topographic map of Grand Bahama Island earlier:

Green: 0-15 ft
Yellow: 15-30 ft
Red: 30+ ft



 

With storm surge up to 23', there just wasn't much place to go. Everything in green and much of the yellow would have been submerged... Already yesterday they were saying that 5 people lost their lives. I fear that by the time this is all done, that number will grow a lot...

Reactions: Great Post 1 | Informative 3 | Sincere 1


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 4, 2019)

So much for Dorian... Little breezy today and cloudy, not a drop of rain so far today.

Hang on Henry it's headed your way!

Reactions: Like 1


----------



## Nubsnstubs (Sep 4, 2019)

rocky1 said:


> So much for Dorian... Little breezy today and cloudy, not a drop of rain so far today.
> 
> Hand on Henry is headed your way!


I hate to tell you this, Rocky, but I think we got your rain last Thursday. Over an inch.... When those storms brew out in the Atlantic, we get some of it even though we're over 2 thousand miles west........ Jerry (in Soaking Wet Tucson) hehehe


----------



## Gdurfey (Sep 4, 2019)

Nubsnstubs said:


> I hate to tell you this, Rocky, but I think we got your rain last Thursday. Over an inch.... When those storms brew out in the Atlantic, we get some of it even though we're over 2 thousand miles west........ Jerry (in Soaking Wet Tucson) hehehe



quit hording Jerry; we have turned dry the last 3.5 weeks. We had early monsoon for over 2 months and then when it was supposed to hit someone turned off the spigot.....Gorgeous spring and early summer around here; once summer finally arrived. Really, really green. As is almost always the case, we just have to wait for the dry spell to show up; it usually does. But you are so right; amazing how an atlantic or gulf storm can pump the moisture up into our states!!!


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 5, 2019)

Well Dorian gained steam again, last night they were finding wind speeds back to 120+ mph as it makes it's way for the North Carolina coast. After that, out across the North Atlantic to visit @Kenbo if their track holds true.

Reactions: Agree 1


----------



## Tony (Sep 5, 2019)

@SENC you doing okay?

Reactions: Agree 1


----------



## SENC (Sep 6, 2019)

Thanks for worrying about us! We're in good shape, no issues at home and community did very well as a whole. Feel like we dodged a bullet, and praying for the folks in the Bahamas.

Reactions: Like 8 | Informative 1


----------



## Tom Smart (Sep 6, 2019)

SENC said:


> Thanks for worrying about us! We're in good shape, no issues at home and community did very well as a whole. Feel like we dodged a bullet, and praying for the folks in the Bahamas.


Great to hear, Henry!

Reactions: Agree 3


----------



## Blueglass (Sep 6, 2019)

Back on Merritt Island. Nothing very bad happened here. I have been keeping up with a few friends in the Carolinas to make sure they are alright and to aliviate the boredom.

Actually I was driving all day today so no contact with anybody.

Reactions: Like 2


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 7, 2019)

Found this one interesting in relation to Dorian... 

https://www.wtoc.com/2019/09/06/low...Lho0J5ZzIFQiEq6lRxbezjAuW11-8KEC7DB3nTgpqW7JI

Reactions: Like 1


----------



## Nature Man (Sep 8, 2019)

rocky1 said:


> Found this one interesting in relation to Dorian...
> 
> https://www.wtoc.com/2019/09/06/low...Lho0J5ZzIFQiEq6lRxbezjAuW11-8KEC7DB3nTgpqW7JI


Totally bizarre! No small island! Chuck


----------



## Nubsnstubs (Sep 8, 2019)

rocky1 said:


> Found this one interesting in relation to Dorian...
> 
> https://www.wtoc.com/2019/09/06/low...Lho0J5ZzIFQiEq6lRxbezjAuW11-8KEC7DB3nTgpqW7JI


Actually, that's one of the US Navy's newest ships, named USS Camouflage. ........ Jerry (in Tucson)


----------



## Sprung (Sep 8, 2019)

rocky1 said:


> Found this one interesting in relation to Dorian...
> 
> https://www.wtoc.com/2019/09/06/low...Lho0J5ZzIFQiEq6lRxbezjAuW11-8KEC7DB3nTgpqW7JI



Reminds me of this, from up here in MN. https://www.kare11.com/article/news...-bog-wreaks-havoc-on-minnesota-lake/483870036

Reactions: Like 1


----------



## Mike1950 (Sep 8, 2019)

Sprung said:


> Reminds me of this, from up here in MN. https://www.kare11.com/article/news...-bog-wreaks-havoc-on-minnesota-lake/483870036


pitch a tent with a sign- I am homesteading it!!!

Reactions: Funny 3


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 8, 2019)

I can't believe no one has built a cabin on that one yet!

Reactions: Agree 2


----------



## Nubsnstubs (Sep 8, 2019)

I can't believe how quickly it reached Canada........... Jerry (in Tucson)


----------



## Strider (Sep 22, 2019)

I am happy you are all well and alive. I have been watching local news and the full 39 seconds of broadcasting they commit. No mention of the damage or how it impacts lives. Just the numbers of the dead, mph and random crossection camera feed. Lousy. 

Do you have the appliances somehow protected from the floof? Like wiring and outlets close to the ceiling?


----------



## rocky1 (Sep 23, 2019)

While they say I'm in a flood zone, I'm not. Idiots in government force me to pay flood insurance for something that will never happen.

Power line pictured here runs about 75 yards North of my home and shop. Yard/buildings are all at elevation at the bottom of the picture. Government claims half of my shop is in flood plain, so I'm required to insure all structures. I have issues with that in that...

1.) Floor is flat and level in the shop. If half of it is in flood plain, all of it is in the damn flood plain. HELLO!

2.) I have to insure all buildings because shop is in flood plain, but they won't insure contents of the shop, because it is not inhabited.

3.) One spot in yard designated not in flood plain, is in fact 4-5 ft lower than shop floor, it's about half way down the power line here.

As is obvious in this picture,we have excellent drainage.

Otherwise, far enough inland winds are not a big issue typically. Trees tend to lift it over structures. There are exceptions of course, as was the case with Michael in the panhandle last year. But typically it's not an issue here.


----------

